UK And South Africa Publish September Inflation Data Before Federal Reserve And ECB Meetings

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Stats SA and the UK's Office for National Statistics both publish September inflation on Wednesday, October 21. Stats SA's release is at 10:00 in Pretoria (Stats SA publication schedule); the ONS release is in London (ONS CPI briefing note). The latest readings are 4.4% for South Africa (Stats SA — August CPI) and 3.1% for the UK (ONS — August CPI).
• The Federal Reserve's policy meeting is October 27–28 (Federal Reserve FOMC calendar). The Fed's calendar for this week lists only routine releases, ending with H.8 bank balance sheets on Friday at 4:15 p.m. ET (Federal Reserve calendar).
• The ECB Governing Council meets October 28–29, with a press conference on the 29th (ECB Governing Council calendar). President Christine Lagarde speaks in Wiesbaden on Wednesday at 18:30 CET (ECB weekly schedule).
• The Black unemployment rate rose to 7.0% in September from 6.0% in August, against 3.6% for white workers (BLS Table A-2). BLS publishes third-quarter Usual Weekly Earnings on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ET (BLS October schedule).
• The Central Bank of Kenya auctions 91-, 182- and 364-day Treasury bills on Thursday, October 22 (CBK). At the last auction, the 91-day bill drew 622% of the amount offered (CBK auction results).
• Nigeria's policy rate stands at 23%, reset at the Central Bank of Nigeria's September meeting with a cash reserve requirement of 45% for commercial banks (CBN decisions). Headline inflation is 14.63% (NBS), and the next policy meeting is November 23–24 (CBN MPC calendar).
• Colombia's central bank, Banco de la República, decides rates on October 30, with its pre-meeting media silence starting October 24 (Banco de la República). Its rate is 12.25% after a 25 bp increase.

UK And South Africa Publish September Inflation Data Before Federal Reserve And ECB Meetings

Next week, Oct 27–29, the Fed and the ECB announce rate decisions back to back. This week brings the last major inflation numbers before those meetings. Two central banks that raised rates in September publish new figures the same Wednesday:

• South Africa raised its policy rate to 7.25% in September (SARB MPC statement). Stats SA's figure lands at 10:00.
• The UK publishes its September inflation figure the same day (ONS). August was 3.1%, up from 2.9% in July (ONS).

The Fed's policy committee meets Oct 27–28 (Federal Reserve), and its calendar for this week lists only routine data releases (Federal Reserve calendar).

That leaves US numbers to set expectations:

• housing starts on Tuesday (Census Bureau);
• state unemployment on Tuesday and quarterly earnings on Wednesday (BLS);
• weekly jobless claims on Thursday, after 199,000 initial claims in the week ending Oct 10 (Department of Labor).

Those numbers come after a September in which Black unemployment jumped a full point to 7.0% (BLS).

Across Africa and the Caribbean, the week is about government borrowing rather than rate decisions. Kenya sells Treasury bills on Thursday (CBK).

Nigeria's Debt Management Office has posted its October bond offer (DMO).

Ghana, South Africa and Jamaica have no rate decisions until mid-November (Bank of Ghana, SARB, Bank of Jamaica).

African and Caribbean companies face two main risks this week: the cost of local-currency borrowing and swings in dollar, euro and sterling exchange rates.

GLOBAL WATCH

Federal Reserve

What's scheduled

The FOMC meets October 27–28, with the next meeting December 8–9 (Federal Reserve FOMC calendar).