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AfreximbankBank · Cairo, Egypt · Led by George Elombi (president)
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The Africa Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) launched in Port Louis, Mauritius, to rate African sovereign, sub-sovereign and corporate credit; Afreximbank welcomed it as a milestone for Africa's financial architecture (Afreximbank — October 8, 2026).
- The Central Bank of Kenya's Monetary Policy Committee held the Central Bank Rate at 8.75 percent on October 7 (Central Bank of Kenya — October 7, 2026).
- Kenya's gross non-performing loan ratio fell to 13.9 percent in September from 14.8 percent in June and 17.6 percent in August 2025 (Central Bank of Kenya — October 7, 2026).
- Private-sector credit grew 10.6 percent in September while average lending rates sat at 14.4 percent, against 17.2 percent in November 2024 (Central Bank of Kenya — October 7, 2026).
- The ECB's account shows unanimous support for the 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.50 percent, with no commitment to further increases (ECB — October 8, 2026).
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said 16 of 18 FOMC participants projected at least one more hike this year (Federal Reserve — October 8, 2026).
STORIES THAT MATTER
MAURITIUS — Africa Credit Rating Agency Launches In Port Louis As Afreximbank Backs African-Led Ratings
The Africa Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) launched in Port Louis, Mauritius, on October 7. Afreximbank welcomed it as an important step in strengthening Africa's financial architecture (Afreximbank — October 8, 2026).
Afreximbank congratulated the African Union and the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) on bringing the agency from concept to launch.
According to the release, AfCRA is meant to:
- provide an African-led source of credit opinion and independent analysis of African credit risk;
- assess sovereign, sub-sovereign and corporate credit;
- develop a methodology that reflects African conditions and institutional structures;
- complement existing international and regional rating agencies, broadening the analysis available to investors and issuers.
Afreximbank said AfCRA's value should be judged by the credibility of its analysis, the quality of its data and the transparency of its methodology — "not by whether it produces more favourable ratings."
The release ties the launch to a position Afreximbank has held with fellow members of the Alliance of African Multilateral Financial Institutions (AAMFI): African multilateral lenders should be assessed on their fundamentals, performance, legal frameworks, mandates and operating models (Afreximbank — October 8, 2026).
"The Agency must set its own standards and not follow those set elsewhere," said Denys Denya, Senior Executive Vice President of Afreximbank.
"AfCRA must set a new benchmark for the continent, maintain its independence, and remain wholly owned and controlled by Africans. We must all use it, and in return expect a complete assessment of where we (Africa) stand: the strengths the market has ignored, and the weaknesses we still need to fix" (Afreximbank — October 8, 2026).
Afreximbank reported total assets and contingencies of more than US$48.5 billion and shareholder funds of US$8.4 billion at end-December 2025.
It currently carries ratings from CCXI (AAA), GCR (A), JCR (A-), Moody's (Baa2) and S&P Global Ratings (BBB+) (Afreximbank — October 8, 2026).
Why It Matters
Credit ratings set the price African sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and corporates pay to borrow. AfCRA adds an African-led opinion to a field run by international agencies. Afreximbank's own ratings run from Baa2 to AAA across five agencies, which shows how much ratings of the same institution can differ.
The release gives no operating timeline, so AfCRA's first published ratings are the next marker to watch.
KENYA — Central Bank Holds Rate At 8.75 Percent, Raises 2026 Growth Forecast To 5.0 Percent
The Central Bank of Kenya's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 8.75 percent at its October 7 meeting (Central Bank of Kenya — October 7, 2026).
It judged that the stance keeps inflation expectations anchored within the target range and the exchange rate stable.
The release is signed by Dr. Kamau Thugge, MPC Chairman. The Committee meets again in December 2026.
Inflation
- Headline inflation rose to 6.8 percent in September from 6.6 percent in August.
- Core inflation climbed to 4.0 percent from 3.4 percent, driven by milk, wheat products and edible oils.
- Non-core inflation eased to 14.0 percent from 14.7 percent on lower vegetable and energy price inflation.
The Committee cited subsidies and the temporary reduction of VAT on fuel as continuing to mitigate price pressure (Central Bank of Kenya — October 7, 2026).
Banking sector
- The gross NPL ratio fell to 13.9 percent in September, from 14.8 percent in June and 17.6 percent in August 2025. Declines came in financial services, agriculture, trade, and energy and water.
- Private-sector credit growth reached 10.6 percent, up from 10.3 percent in August and −2.9 percent in January 2025. Lending to trade, building and construction, agriculture, finance and insurance, and consumer durables stayed strong.
- Average commercial bank lending rates were 14.4 percent, against 14.3 percent in August and 17.2 percent in November 2024 (Central Bank of Kenya — October 7, 2026).
Growth and external accounts
- The MPC raised its 2026 growth projection to 5.0 percent from 4.9 percent, citing stronger industry and services, and held 2027 at 5.3 percent.
- The current account deficit widened to 3.1 percent of GDP in the 12 months to August, from 2.1 percent a year earlier.
- Goods imports rose 15.8 percent against exports up 11.8 percent, and diaspora remittances fell 1.3 percent.
- Reserves stand at USD 14,702 million, or 5.9 months of import cover. The CBK projects a 2026 balance-of-payments surplus of USD 2,426 million (Central Bank of Kenya — October 7, 2026).
The September CEOs Survey and Market Perceptions Survey showed sustained optimism about the next 12 months. Respondents credited macroeconomic stability, government infrastructure spending, digital innovation and cheaper bank credit, while flagging high energy costs and possible El Niño disruption.
The MPC said it will monitor global oil prices and second-round effects and "stands ready to take further action as necessary" (Central Bank of Kenya — October 7, 2026).
Why It Matters
The CBK's own numbers show cheaper and more available credit — lending rates down 2.8 percentage points from November 2024 and credit growth back in double digits — while bad loans keep falling.
Trade, building and construction, and agriculture are the sectors the CBK names as drawing strong credit.
The policy rate stays at 8.75 percent until at least the December meeting. Diaspora remittances fell 1.3 percent, a direct data point for diaspora investors and money-transfer operators.
EURO AREA — ECB Account Shows Unanimous Hike To 2.50 Percent With No Commitment To Further Moves
The account of the European Central Bank Governing Council's September 9–10 meeting, held in Berlin, shows unanimous support for Philip Lane's proposal to raise all three key rates by 25 basis points (ECB — October 8, 2026).
The deposit facility rate rose from 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent, which members described as within staff estimates of the neutral range.
Members cited the persistent energy shock and a deteriorating inflation outlook. They did not commit to further hikes or to any rate path.
Communication was to stay neutral — neither implying a set tightening cycle nor signalling that September was the last move.
Markets had priced 84 basis points of hikes by end-2027, up from 64 basis points at the July meeting (ECB — October 8, 2026).
Staff baseline projections
- Headline inflation of 3.0 percent in 2026, 2.5 percent in 2027 and 2.1 percent in 2028.
- Core inflation of 2.5, 2.6 and 2.3 percent over the same years.
- Growth of 0.9, 1.4 and 1.5 percent.
- Energy inflation falling from almost 15 percent at end-2026 to around −4 percent a year later.
Members generally judged the baseline more plausible than the alternative scenarios, though some saw the adverse scenario as more likely (ECB — October 8, 2026).
Why It Matters
The account leaves the next move open and ties it to data meeting by meeting.
Staff see energy inflation swinging from almost 15 percent to around −4 percent within a year, so the energy path is the variable the Governing Council named.
UNITED STATES — Waller Says 16 Of 18 Fed Participants Projected At Least One More Hike In 2026
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller explained his support for September's 25-basis-point increase to 3.75–4 percent, which ended a nine-month hold (Federal Reserve — October 8, 2026).
He said the decision rested on a preponderance of evidence over several months — a strengthened labor market and persistent inflation — not only the August CPI reading. He described the 75 basis points of cuts from September through December 2025 as insurance against a slowdown.
Waller cited August core PCE inflation of 0.25 percent on the month and 3 percent over 12 months.
He noted that core inflation has run between roughly 2.5 and 3.0 percent since spring 2024, and that inflation would soon have been above target for five and a half years.
He also said experts warn low inventories and damaged infrastructure could keep oil prices high through 2027 (Federal Reserve — October 8, 2026).
On projections
- 16 of 18 FOMC participants expected at least one more hike at the two remaining 2026 meetings, and four of those expected two.
- Futures markets, as of the day before the speech, put the chance of at least one hike by December at 85 percent and two hikes at nearly 20 percent.
- Markets saw nearly an 80 percent chance of at least two hikes by the March 2027 meeting (Federal Reserve — October 8, 2026).
Why It Matters
Waller's figures put the Fed's own projections and market pricing side by side: 16 of 18 officials expect further tightening before year-end.
The next test is the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
SOURCES
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.