KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Brent crude closed at $112.19/barrel on March 20 — up 57% in a month — after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israel-Iran military conflict that began February 28; the Dallas Fed published research on March 20 characterizing the disruption as the largest geopolitically driven oil supply shock since the 1970s energy crisis, with attacks hitting infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE.
  • The SARB Monetary Policy Committee announces its rate decision on Thursday, March 26 — the week's highest-stakes event for African markets. The repo rate stands at 6.75%, South Africa's headline CPI fell to 3.0% y/y in February (hitting the new target), but Brent at $112 has obliterated the January baseline; Investec's chief economist projects CPI above 4.0% y/y in Q2 if oil holds above $110 with the rand at R16.80+. The SARB's January vote was 4-2 to hold — a rate hike is now on the table.
  • The March dot plot confirmed 14 of 19 FOMC participants project zero or one rate cut in 2026, with the median yearend fed funds target unchanged at 3.25%–3.50%; the March SEP revised 2026 PCE inflation up 30 basis points to 2.7% and core PCE up to 2.7%, while real GDP was nudged up to 2.4%; Chair Powell noted "four or five" participants shifted from two cuts to one.
  • S&P Global flash PMIs for March drop Monday at 9:45 AM ET — the first post-FOMC activity data and the earliest read on whether the oil shock is filtering into business conditions; February manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 from 52.4, the weakest in seven months of expansion, and services slipped to 51.7.
  • The rand weakened to near R17/dollar as of March 20, pressured by the stronger dollar and the oil shock; the naira has strengthened to approximately ₦1,357/dollar, down from ₦1,398 two weeks ago — a 2.9% appreciation driven by improved FX liquidity and EO9 implementation momentum.
  • Kenya's February CPI printed at 4.3% y/y (0.2% m/m), with food inflation at 7.3% y/y and transport at 4.0% y/y — setting the backdrop for the Kenya-Rwanda fintech license passporting framework signed in Kigali this month, which addresses a market where 300 million adults remain unbanked and fintech revenues are projected to reach $47 billion by 2028.
  • Five Fed speakers hit the circuit this week, including Governor Barr on community development (Monday), Governor Miran at the Digital Asset Summit (Tuesday), Governor Cook on financial stability (Thursday), and Vice Chair Jefferson on the economic outlook and energy effects (Thursday) — the first sustained post-decision commentary cycle since the oil shock began.

THE LEDGER

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% last Wednesday and revealed exactly how little room it has. The dot plot showed a committee consolidating around a single cut — or none.

The SEP raised the inflation forecast.

Chair Powell acknowledged the directional shift.

The market repriced accordingly. That chapter is closed.

This week the question moves from Washington to Pretoria. The South African Reserve Bank's MPC decision on Thursday is the most consequential rate event of the week — not because the SARB is larger than the Fed, but because the SARB is facing the oil shock in real time with no cushion.

South Africa's CPI hit the new 3% target in February. Governor Kganyago told the press he is "redrafting risk scenarios" after the Iran conflict rendered his January adverse scenario obsolete.

The repo rate sits at 6.75%. The question is no longer when they cut — it is whether they hike. That pivot, if it comes, will reverberate through every African and emerging-market rate curve that references the SARB as a policy bellwether.

Meanwhile, the oil shock's second-order effects are now arriving in real data. Monday's flash PMIs will show whether $112 Brent is already compressing margins and order books.

Tuesday's durable goods report will reveal whether the manufacturing sector that was already losing momentum — PMI at 51.2 in February, the weakest in seven months — is still expanding at all.