THE BLACK EXECUTIVE: WEEKLY MARKET WATCH

THE LEDGER

The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February — the first monthly contraction of the year — while Black unemployment climbed to 7.7%.

This week brings February's CPI print on Wednesday, a GDP revision and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (Core PCE) on Friday, and an FOMC meeting looming on March 17–18.

Every data release this week feeds directly into the rate decision. Here is what to watch.

GLOBAL WATCH

Federal Reserve: The Leadership Transition No One Is Talking About

The biggest Fed story right now is not a testimony — it is a power transfer. On March 4, President Trump formally submitted Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair to the Senate.

Warsh, a former Fed Governor and Stanford lecturer, would take over from Jerome Powell after Powell's leadership term expires on May 15.

The transition is not clean.

Powell disclosed in January that the DOJ served subpoenas and threatened criminal indictment over the Fed's $25 billion headquarters renovation and his related Senate testimony.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis has pledged to block Warsh's confirmation in the Banking Committee until the DOJ investigation is dropped, calling the probe "frivolous" and an attempt to intimidate Powell.

Senate Republican leadership may attempt to bypass Tillis and confirm Warsh before Powell's term expires; Fed officials have agreed to allow Powell to serve as acting chair if there is a gap.

Why It Matters

The Fed currently holds rates at 3.50–3.75% after three consecutive quarter-point cuts in late 2025. Markets assign a 97% probability that rates stay unchanged at the March 17–18 meeting.

But the real question is what happens after: Fed Governor Stephen Miran is pushing for four rate cuts this year, while other officials have floated the possibility of rate hikes if inflation reaccelerates.

Warsh is widely seen as favoring lower rates, which is precisely why Trump nominated him.

For Black executives navigating capital access, real estate, and lending markets, the confirmation timeline matters as much as the rate decision itself.

FOMC Meeting Preview: March 17–18

The Federal Open Market Committee convenes for a two-day meeting with a press conference on March 18 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Fresh signs of labor weakness — the 92,000-job loss in February — collide with rising oil prices linked to the U.S.-Israel conflict involving Iran, creating what analysts are calling a "stagflation trap".

Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated on March 6 that she sees "rate policy holding steady for some time".

Wednesday's CPI and Friday's Core PCE will be the last major inflation data points before officials enter their pre-meeting blackout period. Every number this week directly shapes the March 18 decision and forward guidance.​

ECB: Eurozone Holds Steady, but Services Inflation Persists

The European Central Bank published its Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026 on February 18, covering the February 5 Governing Council meeting.

Key readings from the bulletin: eurozone GDP grew just 0.3% in Q4 2025, services inflation remained sticky above 3%, and unemployment held at 6.2%. The ECB kept rates unchanged at that meeting, and market participants are now watching for potential rate action in April.​

Why It Matters

A weaker euro relative to the dollar affects remittance costs and purchasing power for African diaspora executives with European operations.

Services inflation above 3% suggests the ECB will remain cautious, limiting near-term easing that could stimulate European credit markets.

AFRICA MARKETS

Nigeria: Oil Revenue Overhaul Enters Implementation

President Tinubu's Executive Order No. 9, signed February 13, 2026, mandates that all oil and gas revenues — royalty oil, tax oil, profit oil, profit gas — be remitted directly into the Federation Account, bypassing the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC).

The order eliminates NNPC's 30% management fee on profit oil/gas and scraps the 30% Frontier Exploration Fund under the Petroleum Industry Act.

The Implementation Committee held its inaugural meeting on February 26, chaired by Finance Minister Wale Edun, and approved a transition period to avoid disrupting existing contractual arrangements.

A Technical Subcommittee will deliver detailed implementation guidelines within three weeks. If fully executed, as much as ₦14.57 trillion in additional allocations could flow to federal, state, and local governments.

Separately, the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has set an ambitious ₦40.7 trillion revenue target for 2026 — a 44% increase over 2025 — driven by tax reforms that transferred petroleum royalties and other mineral revenues to the agency.

In 2025, total collections reached ₦28.3 trillion, exceeding target by 12%, with non-oil taxes comprising ₦21.4 trillion of the total.

Currency Watch: The naira has been trading in a relatively narrow band of ₦1,380–₦1,390 per dollar in the official NFEM window, supported by Nigeria's external reserves at multi-year highs and a Monetary Policy Rate of 26.50%.

The parallel market spread remains tight at roughly 1.5–2.0%. Crude production near 1.46 million barrels per day continues to backstop FX inflows.​

Why It Matters

Executive Order 9 is the most significant Nigerian fiscal reform in a generation.

If the direct remittance framework holds, it fundamentally restructures how oil wealth flows through the Nigerian economy — creating new infrastructure spending capacity and potentially attracting foreign investment.

Black executives and diaspora investors should monitor the three-week implementation timeline closely; the Petroleum Industry Act review that follows could alter the terms of production-sharing contracts with international oil companies.

South Africa: Load Shedding Is Over — The Real Risk Is Ahead

Contrary to widespread misinformation, South Africa has been essentially load-shedding free since March 2024.

Eskom recorded over 300 consecutive days without load shedding by January 2025 — the first such stretch since 2018. Only 26 hours of load shedding occurred in all of 2025.

The utility's Summer Outlook, published September 2025, projects no load shedding for the entire September 2025 to March 2026 period. As of March 8, 2026, Eskom confirms no load shedding is scheduled for March.

The real story is what comes next. Eskom's 2026–2030 outlook warns that the risk of "unserved energy" rises sharply in 2029 and 2030 as aging coal-fired generating units are retired.

On January 22, 2026, Eskom had 37,919MW of dispatchable generation against peak demand of just 22,261MW — meaning nearly 16,000MW of excess capacity was sitting idle. That buffer will erode as coal exits accelerate.

Why It Matters

The end of load shedding has materially improved South Africa's business operating environment and investment case. Companies that built costly diesel backup generation may now be over-insured.

The rand benefits from improved energy stability, but executives with 3–5 year investment horizons should factor in the 2029–2030 retirement cliff when modeling returns.

DOMESTIC MARKETS (BLACK AMERICA)

The Jobs Crisis: 92,000 Lost, and Black Workers Hit Hardest

The February 2026 jobs report was not a miss — it was a reversal. The U.S. economy shed 92,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, compared with economists' expectations of a gain of 50,000–60,000.

January's figures were revised down to 126,000 from higher initial estimates. Average job growth over the last three months has dropped to under 6,000 per month.

Black unemployment surged to 7.7% — more than double the 3.7% rate for white workers. Black women's unemployment jumped from 6.4% in January to 7.1% in February. Black teen unemployment sits at 24.5%. Long-term unemployment (27+ weeks) has surged by 400,000 over the past year, reaching 1.9 million Americans.

Where the Jobs Disappeared

The Federal Workforce Assault: Since January 2025, DOGE-driven cuts have eliminated approximately 327,000 federal positions — a 12% reduction in the civilian workforce.

Black Americans make up roughly 18.5% of the federal workforce versus about 12% of overall civilian employment, making these cuts disproportionately destructive to Black economic stability.

Black representation exceeds 25% in agencies like the Postal Service, HUD, Treasury, and the Department of Education — precisely the agencies facing the deepest cuts.

Federal employment has historically been a cornerstone of the Black middle class: 80% of Black federal workers have retirement savings plans, compared with far lower rates in the private sector, and average tenure is 12 years versus 4 years for private-sector workers.

That pipeline is being dismantled in real time. Evercore ISI projects up to 500,000 total federal layoffs by year-end.

The Silver Lining (Thin): Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, both slightly above forecast.

But wage growth means nothing if the jobs are disappearing.

SBA Locks Out Green Card Holders from All Loan Programs

Effective March 1, 2026, SBA Policy Notice 5000-876441 requires that 100% of all direct and indirect owners of a business applying for SBA-backed loans must be U.S. citizens or U.S. nationals with their principal residence in the United States.

Even a 1% ownership stake held by a green card holder now disqualifies the entire business from the 7(a) and 504 programs.

This rescinds the December 2025 exception that had briefly allowed up to 5% non-citizen ownership. The SBA will look through cap tables and ownership chains — not just the names on the borrower entity's operating agreement.​

Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY) called the rule a denial of "hard-working legal immigrants the capital they need," while the SBA cites domestic security and fraud prevention as primary drivers, aligning with a January 2025 executive order prioritizing U.S. citizens for federal resources.

Why It Matters

Many Black-owned businesses have immigrant co-founders, investors, or family members holding equity stakes. Any business with even a minority green card holder on the cap table is now locked out of the most accessible federal lending programs.

Founders should audit ownership structures immediately and consult legal counsel on restructuring options before seeking SBA financing.

THE WEEK AHEAD

Monday, March 9

• China CPI & PPI (February): CPI expected to rebound to ~0.9% YoY from January's 0.2%, driven by Lunar New Year seasonal effects and rising oil prices. PPI decline expected to narrow to roughly -1.2% YoY.​
• Japan Q4 GDP (Final Estimate)

Tuesday, March 10

• China Trade Balance, Money Supply (M0/M1/M2), New RMB Loans, Total Social Financing (February): Credit data closely watched — new TSF loans estimated at RMB 2.34 trillion.​

Wednesday, March 11

• U.S. CPI (February) — 8:30 AM ET: The week's headline event. This is the last major inflation reading before the FOMC meets on March 17–18. January core CPI came in near a four-year low; markets are watching whether the cooling trend holds or reverses.
• China: "Two Sessions" (NPC and CPPCC) conclude​

Thursday, March 12

• No major U.S. releases. PPI is scheduled for March 18, not this week.

Friday, March 13

• U.S. GDP (Second Estimate), Q4 2025 — 8:30 AM ET: The advance estimate shocked at just 1.4% annualized growth, well below the 3.0% consensus, dragged down by the October–November government shutdown. The second estimate may revise higher as more source data arrives.
• Personal Income & Outlays (January 2026) — 8:30 AM ET: Includes the Core PCE Price Index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. December core PCE ran hot at +0.4% MoM and 3.0% YoY. January's reading lands just four days before the FOMC decision.
• JOLTS Job Openings (January) — 10:00 AM ET: December openings fell to 6.54 million, down 877,000 YoY. January data will show whether the labor market continued to tighten before February's collapse.
• UMich Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary March) — 10:00 AM ET: February final was 56.6, near historically weak levels. One-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.4% from 4.0%, but about 46% of consumers still cite high prices as a strain on personal finances.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU

This is not a week to sit on the sidelines. Wednesday's CPI and Friday's triple release (GDP + PCE + JOLTS) will define the narrative heading into the Fed's March 17–18 meeting.

If inflation cools and GDP revises up, expect rate-cut expectations to firm and risk assets to rally. If inflation surprises hot on top of a contracting labor market, the stagflation thesis hardens — and capital access tightens for everyone.

For Black executives and founders specifically: the federal workforce cuts are not a news story; they are a structural realignment of the Black middle class.

The SBA citizenship rule is already in effect. And the February jobs report confirms that the economic pain is landing disproportionately on our communities.

Audit your cap tables, diversify your lending relationships beyond SBA, and watch Friday's data like your balance sheet depends on it — because it does.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or legal counsel regarding your specific situation.