WEEKLY MARKET WATCH: Week of January 4 – January 10, 2026
The "Calibration" Week
The “Calibration” Week
The holiday break is over, and the market’s “soft open” has ended.
This week, the machinery of global finance turns back on fully.
For Black executives, the theme is Calibration.
We are calibrating to a new fiscal reality in Nigeria (the single budget cycle), a new data regime in US lending (Section 1071 compliance), and a new interest rate environment where “higher for longer” has officially shifted to “gradual easing.”
GLOBAL WATCH: Jobs & AI
The macro focus shifts to labor health and tech innovation.
Friday, Jan 9: The Jobs Report
The US Non-Farm Payrolls report releases Friday at 8:30 AM ET.
Why It Matters: This is the first major data point of 2026. The Federal Reserve, currently on pause, needs this number to justify a potential rate cut on January 27.
The Black Print: Watch the Black Unemployment Rate. Last month showed variance; a spike here could signal that the “soft landing” is unevenly distributed, impacting consumer sentiment in our core markets.
Tue, Jan 6 – Fri, Jan 9: CES 2026 (Las Vegas)
The Consumer Electronics Show kicks off.
The Trend: AI is no longer a buzzword; it is infrastructure. Keynotes from AMD and Nvidia will focus on “AI PCs” and industrial automation.
Executive Insight: For Black tech founders, the window for “AI wrappers” is closing. The capital is moving toward applied AI—specifically in healthcare and logistics. Watch for announcements from the “CES Foundry” event, which connects startups with venture capital.
AFRICA MARKETS: The Fiscal Reset
Nigeria’s budget overhaul and South Africa’s political pivot.
🇳🇬 Nigeria: The “Single Budget” Era
President Tinubu has signed the 2026 Appropriation Bill (₦58.18 Trillion) into law, but the headline isn’t the number—it’s the structure.
The Reform: Effective April 1, 2026, Nigeria moves to a Single Budget Cycle. The chaotic era of overlapping budgets (running 2025 capital reform while starting 2026) ends on March 31.
Tax Impact: Despite opposition, new tax laws took effect January 1. Ensure your Nigerian operations are compliant with the new withholding tax structures immediately.
🇿🇦 South Africa: The Jan 8 Statement
On Thursday, January 8, the ANC leadership delivers its annual statement from the North West Province.
The Stakes: This sets the political and economic agenda for the year. With the 2026 local elections looming, expect a populist tone focused on township economy revitalization.
Currency Watch: The Rand (ZAR) typically experiences volatility around this speech. Importers should hedge accordingly early in the week.
🇬🇭 Ghana: The “Detty December” Receipt
Preliminary data suggests a record year. 2024 saw $4.8 billion in tourism revenue, and 2025 is projected to have surpassed that.
Opportunity: The Ghana Tourism Authority is pivoting to “Tech-Enabled Tourism” for 2026. There is an open lane for diaspora-led fintechs to solve the payment friction points that plagued tourists this December.
THE HOMEFRONT: Lending & Housing
New rules for capital access.
Lending: Section 1071 Compliance is Live
As of January 1, 2026, “Tier 3” lenders (smaller volume institutions) must comply with Section 1071 data collection rules.
The Good: This mandates transparency. Lenders must collect and report data on loan applications from minority-owned small businesses.
The Bad: Some smaller banks may temporarily slow lending velocity as they adjust to the compliance burden.
SBA Warning: Effective immediately, SBA 7(a) loans cannot be used to refinance Merchant Cash Advance (MCA) debt. If you are carrying high-interest MCA debt, you must look to alternative restructuring methods; the SBA exit ramp is closed.
Housing: The 6% Normal
The “Great Housing Reset” is here. Mortgage rates are starting the year at 6.16% – 6.21%.
Forecast: Rates are expected to drift slowly toward 6.00% by year-end, but do not wait for the 3% days to return—they are gone.
Strategy: For commercial real estate investors, cap rates must now be modeled against a permanent 6% cost of capital.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Tuesday, January 6
🇺🇸 CES 2026 Begins — The biggest week in tech (Las Vegas).
🇺🇸 Fed Governor Speeches — Listen for clues on the Jan 27 rate decision.
Wednesday, January 7
🇺🇸 ADP Employment Report — The warm-up act for Friday’s jobs number.
Thursday, January 8
🇿🇦 ANC January 8 Statement — Major policy address in South Africa.
🇺🇸 Consumer Credit Data — Are Americans still putting life on the card?
Friday, January 9
🇺🇸 US Non-Farm Payrolls — The Big Number. Market volatility expected at 8:30 AM ET.
SOURCES
Data and insights derived from the following market reports:
** Bureau of Labor Statistics:** “CES News Release Schedule 2026”
** TechLoy:** “CES 2026 Schedule & Keynotes”
** ANC:** “January 8 Statement Venue Announcement”
** Fast Way SBA:** “7 SBA Rule Changes Effective 2026”
** CFPB:** “Small Business Lending Rulemaking (Section 1071)”
** State House Nigeria:** “President Tinubu Signs 2026 Appropriation Bill”
** CGTN Africa:** “Ghana Tourism Revenue Record 2025”
** WSJ:** “Mortgage Rates Forecast Jan 2, 2026”