THE BLACK EXECUTIVE: WEEKLY MARKET WATCH
The “Inflation Test” & The Infrastructure Play | Week of January 11 – January 17, 2026
This week is a referendum on the Federal Reserve’s “gradual easing” narrative.
The US Consumer Price Index release on Tuesday will either validate or challenge the path to rate cuts at the January 27 FOMC meeting.
For Black executives, the implications ripple across three critical areas:
Labor market fragility in our core community,
Infrastructure deployment creating federal contracting opportunities in Africa and the US, and
Lending access reshaping as Section 1071 data transparency takes hold.
Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) show measurable impact.
CDFI borrowers grew total assets by 6.1% annually, compared to 2.4% for all CBDOs.
CDFIs attract roughly $8 in private investment for every $1 in federal funding.
GLOBAL WATCH: The CPI Moment
Tuesday, January 13, 8:30 AM ET: The First Major Data Point of 2026
The US Consumer Price Index for December 2025 releases Tuesday morning.
Forecasts expect headline inflation to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, a slight uptick from November’s 2.4%.
Why This Matters for Black Workers
December payroll data released just this Friday (January 9) revealed a troubling disparity.
While the overall unemployment rate stands at 4.4%, the Black unemployment rate surged to 7.5% in December—up from 6.1% the prior month.
For Black men aged 20+, the rate hit 7.5%; for Black women, 7.1%.
The Context: This marks the highest Black unemployment since August 2021. The rise was driven partly by federal workforce reductions (271,000 fewer federal employees since January 2025), but also signals that the “soft landing” narrative is uneven. Economists view disproportionate Black job losses as a leading indicator of broader labor market deterioration.
The Duration Problem: Black unemployed workers are experiencing longer job search spells—12.1 weeks for men, 14.5 weeks for women—versus 9.6 weeks for white men and 8.6 weeks for white women.
If CPI prints hot (above 2.6%)
The Fed likely delays rate cuts, keeping capital expensive.
If it prints cool
The path to rate cuts clears, lowering borrowing costs for small businesses seeking capital in Q2.
