THE BLACK EXECUTIVE: WEEKLY MARKET WATCH
Week of December 14 – December 20, 2025
THE LEDGER: The “Super Cycle” Begins
The “pivot” has officially landed.
Following the Federal Reserve’s decision last Wednesday to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (lowering the target to 3.50%–3.75%), the cost of capital has dropped to its lowest point since 2022.
For our network of executives, this signals a prime window to revisit variable-rate debt strategies.
But the story for the week ahead isn’t just about the US. We are entering a global “Central Bank Super Cycle.” While the US eases, Japan may tighten, and Africa is on the verge of a historic inflation cool-down.
Here is what you need to know to navigate the volatility.
GLOBAL WATCH: The Divergence
While the Fed rests, the rest of the world moves.
The Big Event: Thursday, Dec 18
Europe takes center stage on Thursday.
The Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) will announce their rate decisions. Markets are currently pricing in a 60–65% chance of a cut from the BoE.
Why It Matters: If the BoE cuts while the US holds steady (post-cut), the Dollar could strengthen against the Pound. For our readers with export businesses or operations in the UK, this makes US goods more expensive but lowers the cost of UK imports.
The Wild Card: Friday, Dec 19
Keep a close watch on the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
In a rare divergence from global trends, the BoJ is signaling a potential rate hike to 0.75%. This shift could trigger volatility in global bond markets, impacting yield curves worldwide.
ABROAD: Deal Flow & Disinflation
Capital inflows and stabilizing prices define the African outlook.
Nigeria: The Disinflation Trend
All eyes are on the National Bureau of Statistics this week (approx. Dec 15-16) for the November CPI report.
The Forecast: Analysts project inflation is rapidly cooling, potentially dropping to 14% (down from 16.05% in October).
The Play: A confirmed drop below 15% would likely prompt the Central Bank of Nigeria to signal rate cuts for early 2026, significantly lowering the cost of expansion for businesses on the ground.
Investment Win: $15.3 Billion Secured
The Africa Investment Forum (AIF) just concluded in Rabat, Morocco, with a massive win for infrastructure. The forum secured $15.3 billion in investment interest for 39 bankable projects.
Sector Watch: Major capital allocations were made in renewable energy, infrastructure, and creative industries. Executives in construction and media should prioritize procurement inquiries related to these new funds.
South Africa
Expect November CPI data mid-week (approx. Dec 17). With inflation already low at 3.6%, the Rand remains stable, creating a predictable environment for importers.
THE HOMEFRONT: Lending & Sentiment
Capital is cheaper, and optimism is higher.
Lending: The Prime Rate Opportunity
The Fed’s cut to 3.50%–3.75% has an immediate downstream effect on the Prime Rate.
Action Item: Review your variable-rate lines of credit and corporate credit cards. The cost of carrying this debt just dropped. Now is the time to negotiate terms or consider refinancing fixed-rate debt if rates dip further in Q1 2026.
Banking Spotlight: MDI Outperformance
Minority Depository Institutions (MDIs) are proving to be the most reliable partners for our community. Recent data shows MDIs are punching above their weight:
Impact: MDIs originated 26.6% of their mortgages to minority borrowers (vs. just 18.6% for non-MDIs).
Growth: These institutions have seen deposit growth of 68%, signaling strong liquidity to support business lending this quarter.
Business Sentiment
According to a JPMorgan Chase survey, Black business owners are currently the most optimistic demographic in the market, with 71% planning to hire full-time staff in 2026.
Risk Alert: Don’t let optimism blind you to risk. Cybersecurity has risen to the #2 concern for Black executives. As revenue grows, so does your target profile—allocate budget to digital defense.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday, Dec 15
🇺🇸 U.S. Retail Sales — First real demand check following the Fed’s rate cut.
🇳🇬 Nigeria CPI (Est.) — Critical for naira stability; markets are watching for inflation below 15%.
Thursday, Dec 18
🇬🇧 Bank of England Rate Decision — A cut is widely expected, with implications for the pound.
🇪🇺 ECB Rate Decision — Will Europe follow the Fed into easing mode?
Friday, Dec 19
🇯🇵 Bank of Japan Rate Decision — A potential hike could trigger bond market volatility.
🇺🇸 PCE Price Index — The Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
SOURCES
Data and insights derived from the following market reports:
Cambridge Currencies, “BoE Forecast 2025”
CNBC, “Fed Approves Third Rate Cut”
Reuters, “BoJ Rate Hike Signals”
Guardian Nigeria, “IMPI Inflation Outlook”
Trading Economics, “Fed Funds Rate”
Trading Economics, “Nigeria Inflation Data”
Africa Investment Forum, “Market Days Report”
BuyBlack.org, “2025 Business Sentiment”
ABA Banking Journal, “Minority Banks & Mortgages”
African Business, “AIF Deal Flow”
Nigeria NBS, “CPI Release Calendar”