MARKET WATCH: December 28, 2025 – January 3, 2026
The "Reset" Week
The first week of 2026 is structurally quiet but strategically loud.
As global markets pause for the New Year, the real action is in the regulatory and fiscal resets taking effect on January 1.
In Nigeria, a historic budget reform aims to end the “cycle of debt,” while in the US, new compliance laws (BOI and Pay Data) create immediate action items for Black business owners.
This is not a trading week—it is a compliance and positioning week.
GLOBAL WATCH: The Silent Open
Liquidity is nonexistent, but the Fed speaks on Tuesday.
The Calendar
Tuesday, Dec 30: FOMC Minutes Release (2:00 PM ET). The Federal Reserve will release details from its December meeting. Markets are looking for confirmation of a “dovish” stance heading into the Jan 27, 2026 meeting.
Wednesday, Dec 31 (New Year’s Eve): Asian markets (China PMI) active; Western markets close early. China’s manufacturing data will be the first “health check” of the 2026 global supply chain.
Thursday, Jan 1 (New Year’s Day): ALL MARKETS CLOSED.
Friday, Jan 2: US Markets Open (Low Volume). No Jobs Report—Non-Farm Payrolls are delayed until Jan 9.
AFRICA MARKETS: The “Budget of Consolidation”
Nigeria pivots to infrastructure; AGOA hangs in the balance.
🇳🇬 Nigeria: The Fiscal Reset
President Tinubu’s 2026 Budget (₦58.47 Trillion) has passed the National Assembly’s second reading and is set for implementation.
The Big Change: The government is moving to a Single Budget Cycle. By March 31, 2026, all previous capital liabilities must be cleared, ending the chaotic “overlapping budgets” of the past. From April 1, Nigeria operates on a clean slate.
Opportunity: ₦23.2 Trillion is allocated for Capital Expenditure (infrastructure, power, housing). This is the largest infrastructure spend in history—contractors in construction and tech should prep bid documents now.
🇿🇦 South Africa: The Jan 8 Statement
The ANC prepares for its January 8 Statement (delivered next week).
Following a tough 2025, expect this address to outline aggressive “populist-leaning” economic reforms to regain voter trust before the 2026 local elections.
Trade Risk: The AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) status remains fragile. While the US House advanced a short-term extension in mid-December, the lack of a long-term 10-year renewal creates uncertainty for South African exporters (auto/wine) and Kenyan textiles.
DOMESTIC MARKETS: Compliance & Culture
New laws for the New Year.
Compliance Alert: Jan 1, 2026
Beneficial Ownership (BOI): If you formed a new entity in 2025, your deadline may have passed. For entities formed on or after Jan 1, 2026, the filing window typically tightens (check if the 90-day grace period persists or reverts to 30 days). Ensure your file with FinCEN is active.
Pay Data Reporting: New laws in several states require enhanced demographic data storage and reporting starting Jan 1. Review your HR tech stack.
Kwanzaa: The Closing Principles
As we cross into the New Year, the final principles of Kwanzaa offer a blueprint for Q1 strategy:
Dec 29 (Ujamaa): Cooperative Economics. Audit your vendors. Can you switch 10% of spend to Black-owned firms in 2026?
Dec 30 (Nia): Purpose. Align your 2026 corporate goals with community impact.
Dec 31 (Kuumba): Creativity. Innovate your offering before the market fully reopens on Jan 5.
Jan 1 (Imani): Faith. Belief in the resilience of our economic power.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Tuesday, December 30
🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes — Fed signals for Jan 27 rate cut expectations.
Wednesday, December 31
🇨🇳 China PMI — First read on 2026 global manufacturing demand.
Kwanzaa (Kuumba) — Creativity: Innovate before the open.
Thursday, January 1
New Year’s Day — MARKETS CLOSED.
Friday, January 2
🇺🇸 Markets Open — Low liquidity; avoid large block trades.
SOURCES
Data and insights derived from the following market reports:
** LiteFinance:** “Weekly Economic Calendar Dec 29 – Jan 4”
** VON:** “2026 Appropriation Bill Passes Second Reading”
** ThisDay:** “Nigeria Needs Holistic Budget Reform (Single Cycle)”
** African Security Analysis:** “AGOA Renewal Updates”
** Littler:** “New Employment Laws Effective Jan 1, 2026”
** NMAAHC:** “The Seven Principles of Kwanzaa”