The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports July headline CPI rose 0.1 percent month over month and 3.4 percent year over year, with core CPI up 0.2 percent. The Black Executive Journal — Daily Edition
Prefer to listen?
Get the full executive audio briefing featuring today's global business, market, and macroeconomic intelligence
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July Consumer Price Index this morning at 8:30 AM Eastern, reporting the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent month over month seasonally adjusted after falling 0.4 percent in June — the largest one-month decline since April 2020.
The unadjusted 12-month rate eased to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent in June, tracking near the Cleveland Fed's August 5 nowcast of 3.42 percent and consensus of 3.4 percent (BLS — Aug 12, 2026).
Core CPI — the all-items index less food and energy — rose 0.2 percent month over month, matching consensus and bringing the annual core rate to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent in June (CNBC — Aug 12, 2026).
Shelter costs rose 0.1 percent and accounted for approximately two-thirds of the monthly all-items increase. Food prices rose 0.1 percent overall, with food away from home up 0.3 percent.
NOT A MEMBER OF THE JOURNAL YET?
Join thousands of leaders across the diaspora.
Get access to The Black Executive Journal’s premium reporting, daily briefings, research, and business intelligence.
Energy fell 1.5 percent on the month as gasoline prices declined, marking the second consecutive monthly energy contraction.
The print preserves the Federal Open Market Committee's flexibility ahead of the September 15-16 meeting. Fed-funds futures now price a September 25-basis-point cut probability of 76 percent and a 50-basis-point cut at approximately 24 percent — up modestly from Tuesday's close.
The August CPI print scheduled for September 11 remains the final inflation datapoint before the September FOMC decision.
Markets reacted favorably.
The two-year Treasury yield fell 8 basis points to 3.71 percent in the first thirty minutes after release; the 10-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.63 percent. The dollar index weakened 0.4 percent on the print. S&P 500 futures gained 0.6 percent pre-market and Nasdaq futures rose 0.9 percent.
For Black founders and community-development finance operators, the softer inflation print combined with last Friday's -23,000 payroll contraction locks in the case for a September rate cut and probable Q4 balance-sheet tightening moderation.
CDFI and MDI operators should model prime rate at 8.00 percent from September 17 and prepare refinancing pipelines for real-estate-secured borrowers currently at prime-plus-two.
Diaspora capital allocators with duration exposure benefit from front-end curve steepening; two-year Treasury paper at 3.71 percent now trades roughly 92 basis points below the effective Fed funds rate, indicating market conviction that the easing cycle begins next month.
Consumer credit product operators — including buy-now-pay-later and revolving-card affiliate businesses — should model APR compression of 25-50 basis points by year-end as the transmission mechanism reaches receivables pricing.
The African Development Bank Group Board of Directors approved a €100 million loan to Gotion Power Morocco to finance the development of an integrated cathode-to-cell lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery gigafactory in the Rabat-Salé-Kénitra Free Trade Zone (AfDB Press Release — Aug 4, 2026).
COMING UP...
MOROCCO — African Development Bank Approves 100 Million Euro Loan For Gotion Power Battery Gigafactory
SENEGAL — African Development Bank Approves 20 Billion CFA Francs For Economic Reforms And Public Finance Governance
BRAZIL — Central Bank Of Brazil Publishes Copom Minutes And July IPCA Inflation
The financing supports the first vertically integrated LFP battery manufacturing platform on the African continent.
The project targets export markets across Europe and the Middle East, positioning Morocco as a regional hub for the EV battery supply chain.
